Module 7•Unit 1 of 6•12 min

The Adoption Curve

Not everyone adopts a new innovation at the same time. In his classic work Diffusion of Innovations, sociologist Everett Rogers showed that adoption follows a predictable bell curve, with people falling into five categories based on how readily they embrace the new.^[1] Understanding who adopts when - and why - is essential to bringing any innovation to market.

Rogers' adoption curve: five categories, each embracing innovation at a different point.

The five adopter categories

Innovators (~2.5%)

Venturesome risk-takers who love the new for its own sake. Tolerant of rough edges.

Early Adopters (~13.5%)

Visionary opinion leaders who adopt early to gain an edge. The crucial group to win first.

Early Majority (~34%)

Pragmatists who adopt once something is proven. Reaching them means mainstream success.

Late Majority (~34%)

Skeptics who adopt only under pressure, once it is the norm.

Laggards (~16%)

Traditionalists who resist until they have no choice.

Innovators and early adopters buy the vision and the novelty; the majority buys proof, references, and reliability. A pitch that thrills an early adopter ("be first, be cutting-edge") often frightens a pragmatist ("who else uses this? is it safe?"). Matching your message to the adopter category is a core marketing skill for innovation.

Discuss

For your latest innovation, which adopter category are you currently selling to - and are you using the right message for them?

Try this at work this week

Identify which adopter category your current customers mostly belong to. Then write the one message that would move the next category to adopt. That shift in messaging is often what unlocks the next wave of growth.

Sources

Rogers, E., Diffusion of Innovations, 5th ed., 2003.
Global Innovation Institute (GInI), Foundations of Innovation body of knowledge.
Bass, F., "A New Product Growth Model for Consumer Durables", 1969.

Diffusion of Innovations & the Hype Cycle

Crossing the Chasm