Module 7•Unit 3 of 6•12 min

The Hype Cycle

New innovations rarely rise in a straight line. Gartner's Hype Cycle (also called the Expectations Curve) captures a pattern that repeats across almost every emerging technology: an initial burst of hype inflates expectations far beyond what the innovation can yet deliver, disappointment follows, and only later does the innovation quietly mature into real productivity.

The Hype Cycle: from trigger, to a peak of inflated expectations, into the trough, then up the slope to a plateau. Source concept: Gartner, Inc.

The five phases

1. Innovation Trigger

A breakthrough sparks interest and early press. No usable products yet.

2. Peak of Inflated Expectations

Hype outruns reality. Early adopters expect more than the innovation can deliver.

3. Trough of Disillusionment

Reality disappoints; interest crashes. Many wrongly write the innovation off here.

4. Slope of Enlightenment

The innovation matures; real, practical uses emerge as it improves.

5. Plateau of Productivity

Mainstream adoption; the innovation delivers steady, real value.

Notice how this connects to Rogers: the peak often marks the handoff from innovators to early adopters (who hope for more than they get), and the climb out of the trough into the early majority. The hype cycle and the adoption curve are two views of the same journey.

The single most valuable lesson: a new innovation failing to meet early hype is usually not a reason to write it off. That disillusionment is a normal phase, not a verdict. Many technologies dismissed in the trough went on to be transformative once they matured. (The rare exception: hype built around solving a problem that does not actually exist - that never recovers.)

You decide

A technology your company bet on is being widely mocked as a failed, over-hyped fad, 18 months after its exciting launch. What's the wise read?

Discuss

Which technology is at the 'peak of inflated expectations' in your industry right now, and which is climbing out of the trough? How should that change your bets?

Try this at work this week

Place three technologies relevant to your business on the hype cycle. For anything in the trough, ask the decisive question: does it solve a real need? If yes, that is where patient bets are cheapest and smartest.

Sources

Gartner, Inc., "Hype Cycle" research methodology.
Fenn, J. & Raskino, M., Mastering the Hype Cycle, 2008.
Global Innovation Institute (GInI), Foundations of Innovation body of knowledge.

Crossing the Chasm

Factors Affecting Adoption