CypherCrescent
Module 6•Unit 5 of 5•12 min

Case Study: Imaging S-Curves

A century of photography as a real, textbook succession of foundations of value.

Few industries illustrate progressive foundations of value as cleanly as photographic imaging. Over roughly a century, the way images were captured jumped across three (and arguably four) distinct foundations - each a new S-curve, each with its own innovation window, and each rewarding those who crossed and punishing those who did not.

1

Chemical film

For most of the 20th century, imaging rested on chemical film. The curve matured beautifully - ever finer grain, faster speeds - and made Kodak and Fujifilm giants. Eventually it neared its limits.

2

Digital sensors

A new foundation. Early digital cameras were expensive and worse than film - firmly at the bottom of a new S-curve. But they improved relentlessly, crossed the window, and made film obsolete for most uses.

3

Smartphone imaging + software

Yet another foundation. The camera merged into the phone, and value shifted from optics to computational photography, instant sharing, and cloud. This curve upended even the dedicated digital-camera makers.

Whoever ignored the next curve got left behind
At each jump, incumbents who clung to the maturing curve lost, and those who crossed the window won. Kodak dominated film and even invented digital - but would not cross. Later, dedicated digital-camera makers were in turn disrupted by smartphones. Each innovation window claimed those who hesitated.

Your Turn

Think it through, then reveal.

Discuss with your group

Map your own industry's succession of foundations of value over recent decades. Which window is opening next - and is your organisation watching its trajectory or its starting point?

Try this at work this week
Draw your industry's imaging-style staircase: the past foundation, the current one, and the emerging next one. Put a star on the innovation window you think is opening next - and ask what crossing it early would require.

Sources

  1. Global Innovation Institute (GInI), Foundations of Innovation body of knowledge.
  2. Foster, R., Innovation: The Attacker's Advantage, 1986.
  3. Public histories of the photographic-imaging industry, 1975-2015.