The S-Curve
Every foundation of value follows a characteristic life story, and that story has a shape: the S-Curve. If you plot the value or performance an offering delivers against the effort (or time) invested in it, you get an S: a slow start, then rapid acceleration, then a flattening plateau as the foundation approaches its natural limits.
The S-Curve: value accelerates, then plateaus as the foundation of value nears its limits.
The three phases
Emerging (slow start)
Lots of effort for little visible return. The technology is immature; progress is hard-won. Many give up here, mistaking the slow start for failure.
Rapid growth (steep middle)
The foundation hits its stride. Each unit of effort yields big gains in value. This is the profitable, exciting phase - and where most competition concentrates.
Maturity (flat top)
Diminishing returns. Enormous effort yields tiny gains as the foundation approaches its physical or economic limits. The signal that it is time to jump to a new S-curve.
Where do you think your organisation's main offering sits on its S-curve?
Pick the answer that fits you best - there's no wrong choice.
Where does your core offering sit on its S-curve, and what evidence tells you? If it's maturing, what is your next curve?
Sources
- Foster, R., Innovation: The Attacker's Advantage, 1986 (technology S-curves).
- Global Innovation Institute (GInI), Foundations of Innovation body of knowledge.
- Christensen, C., The Innovator's Dilemma, 1997.