The Innovation Window
Jumping from one foundation of value to the next is not a seamless step - it involves a gap. Between the flattening top of the old S-curve and the slow start of the new one lies a period of discontinuity, sometimes called the Innovation Window. It is the most dangerous and most decisive moment in an offering's life - the moment where fortunes are made and lost.
The Innovation Window: the discontinuity between a maturing foundation and its rising successor.
Why the window is so treacherous
- →The new curve starts lower. Early in its life, the new foundation often performs worse than the mature old one - so it looks like a downgrade (echoing disruption from Module 4).
- →Timing is brutal. Jump too early and the new foundation isn't ready; jump too late and a competitor has already crossed. The window is real but finite.
- →It requires letting go. Crossing means investing in the new while the old is still profitable - the creative-destruction dilemma from Module 3.
- →Attackers have the advantage. Newcomers with no old curve to protect can commit fully to the new foundation, while incumbents hesitate.
A new foundation of value is emerging in your industry. Today it performs worse than your mature offering, but it's improving fast. When do you commit?
Is there an innovation window opening in your industry right now - a new foundation of value that looks inferior today but is improving fast? Is your organisation positioned to cross it?
Sources
- Global Innovation Institute (GInI), Foundations of Innovation body of knowledge.
- Foster, R., Innovation: The Attacker's Advantage, 1986.
- Christensen, C., The Innovator's Dilemma, 1997.